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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-26 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 605 WTNT32 KNHC 261457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 54.3W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 54.3 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-26 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 629 FONT12 KNHC 261457 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 11(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBADOS 34 X 15(15) 15(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BARBADOS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-26 16:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 867 WTNT22 KNHC 261457 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 54.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 54.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 56.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-26 13:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 11:57:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 09:22:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-26 13:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 12.0, -53.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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