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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-26 19:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK STRENGTHENS SOME MORE BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 12.5, -55.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 11A
2018-09-26 19:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 060 WTNT32 KNHC 261747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK STRENGTHENS SOME MORE BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 55.0W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-26 17:02:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 15:02:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 15:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-26 16:58:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 196 WTNT42 KNHC 261458 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 Kirk is maintaining a CDO of strong convection over its center, but banding features are limited. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with scatterometer data indicate that the storm has strengthened a little and the maximum winds are now near 45 kt. The SHIPS model output shows a large increase in westerly shear over Kirk within 18-24 hours. Therefore not much additional strengthening is likely, and a weakening trend should commence in a day or so. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. Strong westerly shear is likely to continue to adversely affect Kirk while it moves over the Caribbean, and the system should weaken into a depression within 72 hours or sooner, and become a remnant low later in the forecast period. The motion is a little north of due west, or 280/16 kt. The steering pattern for Kirk is rather straightforward. A subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern North Atlantic is expected to persist and retrograde slightly westward over the forecast period. The flow on the southern side of the high should steer Kirk on a westward to west-northwestward track for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, and is very similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.1N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.7N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 16.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 16.0N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-26 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 12.1, -54.3 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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