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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 29
2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...HILARY MOVING OVER COOLER WATER... ...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 118.4W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 118.4 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 281436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 75 15(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 16 20(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 120W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 29
2017-07-28 16:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 119.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 123.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-28 10:46:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 08:46:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 09:24:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-28 10:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280840 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 The structure of Hilary has changed little over the past several hours, as a small area of convection persists near the center mainly in the southeastern quadrant. Recent satellite intensity estimates range from 45-70 kt, and based on these, the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 60 kt. Hilary should cross the 26C isotherm in 12-18 h, and given the current level of convective organization, significant re- intensification seems unlikely during that time. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass, and this combination should result in steady weakening. The cyclone is now forecast to weaken to a depression in about 72 h over 24C sea surface temperatures and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast shows a faster weakening than the previous forecast after 12 h, and it is in best overall agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. It is possible that interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin could lead to a faster decay than currently forecast. The initial motion is 300/7, a little to the right of that in the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge to the north of Hilary is expected to steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward for 48 h or so. Around 72 h, a westward turn appears likely as the cyclone interacts with, and eventually absorbs Irwin. After this event, Hilary or its remnants should resume a west-northwestward motion as the weakening system is steered by the low-level flow. The new forecast track is nudged north of the previous track, but it lies south of the consensus models, which have shifted northward since the last advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.7N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.3N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.9N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 22.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 25.0N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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