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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-07-23 10:49:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 The cloud pattern of Hilary is gradually becoming better organized, with some convective banding features beginning to develop. The upper-level outflow is well defined over all but the southeastern semicircle of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain at 2.5 so the current intensity is held at 35 kt. This is also consistent with ASCAT data from a few hours ago. The atmospheric and oceanic environment should be quite favorable for intensification during the next few days. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear should remain below 10 kt throughout the forecast period, and the global models show a large upper-level anticyclone over Hilary through 4-5 days. Late in the period Hilary is expected to move over cooler SSTs, and this should halt the intensification process. The official intensity forecast shows the system approaching major hurricane status in 72 hours and some of the guidance, including the corrected consensus models, suggest that this could be conservative. Overnight microwave data indicate a bit of a jump to the west-northwest, perhaps as a result of reformation of the center as opposed to large-scale motion. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. A large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southwestern United States or northwestern Mexico should maintain the west-northwestward heading throughout the forecast period. The track model guidance is in agreement on a decrease in forward speed, and the official forecast shows this as well. Later in the period, there is a possibility of some binary interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin currently located some 800 n mi to the west. This, along with a substantial spread in the track models at 4-5 days, adds some uncertainty to the forecast. In any event, the official track forecast is not far from the latest model consensus, and keeps the system well offshore of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 12.5N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 13.1N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 13.9N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 14.7N 105.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Storm HILARY (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-23 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 the center of HILARY was located near 12.5, -101.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm HILARY Public Advisory Number 8

2017-07-23 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...HILARY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 101.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 101.6 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-07-23 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 101.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.1N 102.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.9N 104.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 105.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.5N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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