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Hurricane HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2017-07-25 16:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 251438 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 46 24(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 110W 50 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 35(36) 36(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 12(60) 1(61) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) 1(26) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 15(52) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane HILARY (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-25 16:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 the center of HILARY was located near 15.3, -107.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane HILARY Public Advisory Number 17

2017-07-25 16:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 251437 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 107.8W ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 107.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, with little change in wind speed forecast on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 17

2017-07-25 16:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 251437 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 113.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 116.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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