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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-07-24 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240847 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 83 13(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 105W 50 18 45(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 105W 64 3 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 42(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) 1(16) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 33(48) 2(50) X(50) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 21(78) 1(79) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 21(47) 1(48) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) 1(29) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 1(31) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 24(46) 4(50) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 24(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-07-24 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 240846 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-24 04:55:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 02:55:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 02:55:17 GMT
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hilary
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-07-24 04:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240250 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Hilary has continued to become better organized with a curved convective band now wrapping nearly all the way around the low-level center, and a banding eye of about 10 n mi in diameter evident in recent SSMI/S microwave satellite data. The intensity estimate was 55 kt by TAFB at 0000Z, but since the overall convective and inner-core patterns have improved during the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Hilary is expected to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next several days, with a slight increase in forward speed expected in about 48 hours or so. The new model guidance is tightly packed around the previous NHC advisory track through 96 h, so the new forecast track is just an update of the previous one, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN models. Given the improving inner-core structure, coupled with very low vertical shear values and a moist unstable environment, continued rapid intensification appears likely for the next 36-48 hours while the small cyclone remains over SSTs greater than 28C. By 72 hours, SSTs cool to near 27C and the upper-ocean heat content decreases to less than 10 units, suggesting that cold upwelling will probably begin around that time. The new intensity forecast follows the previous advisory by showing rapid strengthening of about 15 kt every 12 hours for the next 36 hours, followed by a slightly slower rate of strengthening since an eyewall replacement cycle could begin in the 36-48 h period. After that, increasing shear and cooler water temperatures should induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the corrected-consensus model HCCA, which brings Hilary to a 116-kt, category-4 hurricane in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.6N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.7N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 17.2N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 18.3N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 19.2N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-07-24 04:47:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240247 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 51 41(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 105W 50 1 40(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 105W 64 X 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 48(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 35(46) 2(48) X(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 30(74) 2(76) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 2(45) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 2(33) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 29(44) 4(48) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 29(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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