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Tropical Storm HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-07-23 16:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 231434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 34 5 55(60) 23(83) 2(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 105W 50 X 10(10) 25(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 105W 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 38(72) 2(74) X(74) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 5(42) 1(43) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 7(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 4(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 8(39) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm HILARY (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-23 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 the center of HILARY was located near 12.7, -102.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm HILARY Public Advisory Number 9
2017-07-23 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 231434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 102.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 102.3 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm HILARY Graphics
2017-07-23 10:55:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 08:55:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 09:28:38 GMT
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hilary
Tropical Storm HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-07-23 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230849 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 1 38(39) 45(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 105W 50 X 3( 3) 37(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 38(55) 3(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29) X(29) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 13(59) 1(60) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 10(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 8(38) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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