je.st
news
Tag: hilary
Hurricane HILARY Graphics
2017-07-24 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 14:47:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 14:47:01 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hilary
hurricane graphics
Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-07-24 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of convection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting that an eye is trying to form. Microwave data also show an incomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most sensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the center. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the satellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend. Interestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt in the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off on the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no longer showing it becoming a major hurricane. It is difficult to believe the new model runs because the environment seems similarly favorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some increase in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest NHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to the possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 295/7. A ridge that extends into the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should steer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time. The long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary interaction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5. Dynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction, although the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the rest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous one, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction solutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast at long range. Obviously this type of forecast has large uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-07-24 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 241441 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 105W 50 38 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 105W 64 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 24(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 18(42) 2(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) 11(76) 1(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 9(44) 1(45) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) 1(28) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 1(31) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 15(48) 3(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 1(19) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 12(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane HILARY (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-24 16:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of HILARY was located near 14.1, -104.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
hilary
Hurricane HILARY Public Advisory Number 13
2017-07-24 16:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 241441 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 104.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 104.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] next »