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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-23 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Hilary was located near 13.2, -102.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 10
2017-07-23 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 232032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...HILARY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 102.9W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 102.9 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-07-23 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 232032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm HILARY Graphics
2017-07-23 16:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 14:39:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 14:39:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-07-23 16:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 Visible imagery indicates that Hilary is becoming better organized. A small central dense overcast has formed, along with a large curved band in the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB estimates. Hilary could be on the verge of starting its long-anticipated significant strengthening period. A 1059 UTC SSMIS microwave pass indicates more inner-core structure with the storm, which suggests that Hilary will be able to take advantage of the nearby conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The SHIPS guidance is also indicating relatively high chances of rapid intensification, roughly a 50/50 chance during the next 48 hours. Given the factors above, the NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, best in line with a blend of the HWRF/DSHIP/HFIP corrected consensus models. An increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by outflow from TS Irwin, should cause some weakening late in the period, along with more marginal SSTs. Hilary is moving slower now to the west-northwest at about 9 kt. A ridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction for the next several days, at various speeds due to the strength of the ridge. Later in the period, there is a possibility of some binary interaction with Irwin, which adds some uncertainty to the forecast. Overall, there hasn't been a lot of change to the model guidance, and the latest NHC track prediction stays relatively close to the previous forecast and the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 12.7N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 13.1N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.8N 104.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.6N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.6N 115.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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