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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-23 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230253 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 A persistent area of convection has developed near and over the center of the depression since the last advisory. In addition, a recent SSMI/S overpass shows the low- to mid-level convective banding has become better defined. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, the upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Hilary. Hilary should remain in an environment of light vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 4 days, and thus it should at least steadily, if not rapidly, strengthen. After day 4, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into stronger shear, and the new intensity forecast shows weakening at that time. The new intensity forecast lies below that of the SHIPS model and the HCCA corrected consensus, and it is possible an upward adjustment of the forecast intensities may be required in later advisories. The initial motion is 300/12. The main steering feature should be a mid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the Pacific, and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. Near the end of the period, there is a possibility of interaction with Tropical Depression Ten-E, although present indications in the large-scale guidance are this should have a minimal impact on Hilary's track. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track, and it lies near the various consensus models. The new track keeps the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.5N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-07-23 04:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 230253 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) 33(67) 4(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 57(63) 7(70) 1(71) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 22(42) 3(45) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 23(59) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 12(36) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 22(40) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-23 04:53:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HILARY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Hilary was located near 11.5, -100.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 7
2017-07-23 04:53:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230253 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HILARY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 100.2W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 100.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary could become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-07-23 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 230252 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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