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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-24 04:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...PRIMED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Hilary was located near 13.6, -103.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilary Public Advisory Number 11
2017-07-24 04:47:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 240247 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilary Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017 ...HILARY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...PRIMED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 103.5W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 103.5 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-07-24 04:47:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 240247 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.7N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.4N 107.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 103.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilary Graphics
2017-07-23 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 20:41:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 20:41:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-07-23 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 232033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 23 63(86) 5(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 105W 50 X 41(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 105W 64 X 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 37(45) 23(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 40(47) 3(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 43(68) 3(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 4(40) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) 3(34) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 5(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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