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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-07-25 10:58:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250858 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Hilary's compact, symmetric, inner core continues to become better defined on satellite imagery. Microwave imagery suggests that the eye is quite small, less than 10 n mi in diameter, with little evidence of vertical tilt of the vortex. The current intensity estimate is now 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from the NESDIS SAB. Hilary should be in a moist air mass and over a warm ocean for the next couple of days. Dynamical guidance predicts some increase in northerly shear over the cyclone in 1- to 2-days, but probably not enough of an increase to impede at least some additional strengthening. The official intensity forecast calls for Hilary to become a major hurricane in 12 hours or so and reach a peak in a day or so. This is in good agreement with the latest Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE) prediction. Later in the forecast period, gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should induce slow weakening. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States would cause Hilary to continue on its west-northwestward track for the next several days. In a few days, however, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane Irwin. The current thinking is that the circulation of Hilary will dominate so that little influence on Hilary's track, due to binary interaction with Irwin, will occur. On the other hand, the latter tropical cyclone is expected to begin rotating around Hilary's circulation later in the forecast period (please refer to the Forecast Discussion on Irwin for additional information). The official track forecast is quite close to the simple consensus TVCN, and to the corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.3N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 16.8N 112.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.4N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 18.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 19.5N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-07-25 10:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250857 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 52(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 110W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 67(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 13(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 2(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 32(67) 2(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 26(47) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane HILARY (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-25 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 the center of HILARY was located near 15.3, -106.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane HILARY Public Advisory Number 16
2017-07-25 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250857 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 300 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...HILARY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 106.7W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 106.7 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Hilary will likely become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-07-25 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250857 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.3N 110.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N 112.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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