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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-07-24 16:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 241441 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hilary Graphics
2017-07-24 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:52:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:52:50 GMT
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-24 10:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240847 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Hilary's overall cloud pattern continues to become better organized, although inner-core convection is still fluctuating somewhat. There is well-defined upper-level outflow, particularly over the northwest and northeast quadrants of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are now 4.0, which supports upgrading the system to the fourth hurricane of the 2017 eastern North Pacific season. Hilary is expected to continue traversing a warm ocean with weak vertical shear for the next couple of days, which favors continued strengthening. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, since the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a 60 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in line with the RII guidance, and is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus intensity forecast through 72 hours, and a little below it thereafter when SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to cool below 26 deg C. A west-northwestward motion continues, near 300/7 kt. The flow on the southern periphery of a large 500 mb ridge that extends westward from the southwestern United States should be the main steering mechanism for the next several days. A slight strengthening of the flow should lead to some increase in the forward speed of Hilary over the next few days. There is still the possibility of some binary interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin to the west, but for now this interaction is not expected to be very significant within the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.0N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-24 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Hilary was located near 14.0, -103.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 12
2017-07-24 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 240847 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 103.8W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general direction of motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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