je.st

Home › hilary

Tag: hilary

Hurricane Hilary Graphics

2017-07-25 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 02:42:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 02:42:28 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hilary hurricane graphics

Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-07-25 04:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250235 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Recent microwave satellite images indicate that Hilary has developed a tight banding eye feature with a diameter of less than 10 nmi. Deep convection with cloud tops to -85C within an elongated CDO has continued to pulse since the previous advisory, likely due to some modest high-level shear induced by a large convective complex located a couple hundred nmi southeast of Hilary's center. However, that convective cloud mass has recently been showing signs of waning, so that negative influence will likely begin to abate fairly soon. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB at 0000Z. Since that time, the CDO has become more distinct and NHC objective intensity estimates have been ranging between 82-88 kt during the past 2 hours. As a result, the advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. Hilary is forecast to move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. With the exception of the more northerly GFS model -- which had a similar poleward bias with Fernanda -- the rest of the NHC model guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, only minor speed adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. Although some binary interaction with TS Irwin is still possible, Hilary is expected to be the larger and more dominant circulation, resulting in Irwin being pulled poleward within Hilary's wake on days 3-5. The small eye and tight inner-core banding features noted in recent microwave imagery, along with large-scale low vertical wind shear conditions and favorable thermodynamics, argues for some rapid intensification to occur during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, some adjustment of the eye and inner-core wind field is possible, which has resulted in a leveling off of Hilary's intensity forecast in the 24-to 48-h period. By 72 hours and beyond, the combination of decreasing SSTs to less than 26C along with some modest westerly wind shear should produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and ECMWF intensity predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-25 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Hilary was located near 15.0, -105.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane hilary

Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 15

2017-07-25 04:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250231 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane