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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-27 01:49:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 23:49:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 21:05:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-27 01:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 29.7, -71.5 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 13A
2014-08-27 01:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262344 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 71.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-26 23:11:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:42:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 21:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-26 22:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262046 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 As Cristobal has moved northward around the eastern side of the upper trough it is currently interacting with, the shear has decreased over the cyclone and deep convection has redeveloped near the center. The latest NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the pressure had fallen to 984 mb and reported a partial eyewall. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a peak 8,000-ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and SFMR winds around 60 kt. Aircraft data and a partial ASCAT pass show that the wind field of Cristobal has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted outward. Conditions should be favorable for some strengthening as a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a higher shear environment. After that time, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show an impressive extratropical transition of Cristobal, as it interacts synergistically with a powerful mid-latitude trough in about 3 days. This should result in Cristobal maintaining hurricane-force winds for a time as an extratropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is 010/12. Cristobal jogged north- northeastward earlier today, but is now moving a bit more to the left. The dynamical model guidance shows a bit of a northward jog tonight as the cyclone moves east of the upper-trough. After that time an acceleration toward the northeast is expected as the subtropical ridge to the southeast propels Cristobal into the mid latitudes by 48 hours. A quick northeastward motion is expected to continue through 4 days with a bend back toward the north-northeast shown at day 5. The track model guidance has shifted a bit to the west this cycle in the short range, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction for the first 36 hours, but lies on the east side of the guidance envelope. At 48 hours and beyond the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 28.8N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 30.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 32.9N 70.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 35.2N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 38.0N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 45.5N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 52.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 60.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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