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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2014-08-26 22:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 262045 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 7(37) X(37) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

2014-08-26 22:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 28.8, -71.4 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 13

2014-08-26 22:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL FORECAST TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 71.4W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 13

2014-08-26 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 262042 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 71.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 71.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 71.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.7N 71.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.9N 70.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.2N 67.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 38.0N 62.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 45.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 52.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 60.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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