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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-08 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Jose was located near 16.0, -55.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-09-08 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080838 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 Jose's satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud tops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye. The initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends. Some increase in strength is still possible during the next day or so while the cyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the remainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is expected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding drier more stable thermodynamic environment. The NHC forecast is close to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt. Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge steering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing the cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday. Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and then northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric trough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.0N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 18.5N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.0N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.5N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.4N 68.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 27.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 12

2017-09-08 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080838 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 55.3W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.25 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (200 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.25 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life- threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2017-09-08 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 080838 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...200 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 20(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 1 13(14) 62(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBUDA 50 X 2( 2) 38(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ANTIGUA 34 1 10(11) 41(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 1 6( 7) 14(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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