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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 48
2017-09-17 10:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170848 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 71.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 180SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 71.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 71.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-17 04:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 02:45:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 03:25:18 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 47
2017-09-17 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170239 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Jose's cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric CDO but deep convection and the overall cloud shield is elongated northeastward due to some westerly shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS range from 60 kt to 77 kt. Since the earlier aircraft data suggest that Jose's intensity was near the midpoint of this range, a 70-kt initial wind speed is maintained for this advisory. The satellite fixes are little to the east of the previously estimated positions, but given the westerly shear the surface center is likely located a little west of these, resulting in an initial motion estimate of 360/5 kt. Jose is forecast to move northward at a slightly faster pace around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the next few days. After that time, Jose is predicted to turn northeastward, then eastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow. The 18Z GFS has trended a bit slower at days 4 and 5, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The ECMWF and UKMET models remain to the west of the official forecast and it is still possible that Jose will track somewhat closer to the U.S. east coast than indicated here. Jose still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen before westerly shear increases, however, most of the intensity guidance now calls for gradual weakening to begin within 12-24 hours. Decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 hours should cause an additional decrease in intensity later in the period. The NHC intensity prediction is near the higher statistical guidance during the first couple of days, and near the global model guidance later in the period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 32.9N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 34.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 37.7N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.2N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2017-09-17 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 170238 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 4(34) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 2(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 5(17) X(17) 1(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-17 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Jose was located near 29.2, -71.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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