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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41

2017-09-15 16:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 151453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 8(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 3(21) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 4(23) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 3(23) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 2(33) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 1(19) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-15 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF JOSE IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 15 the center of Jose was located near 26.5, -69.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 41

2017-09-15 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 ...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF JOSE IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 69.4W ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 69.4 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late Saturday and toward the north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. An Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to obtain a better wind speed estimate. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 41

2017-09-15 16:52:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 69.4W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 69.4W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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