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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Jose was located near 27.1, -70.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 42
2017-09-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late Saturday and toward the north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 42
2017-09-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152034 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 70.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 70.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 69.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-15 16:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 14:59:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 14:59:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-09-15 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed 60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast. Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west- northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one, near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm- force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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