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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 43
2017-09-16 04:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 71.0W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected over the next couple of days. The estimated maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 43
2017-09-16 04:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160250 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.2N 72.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.6N 72.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.6N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 41.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 71.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-15 22:42:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:42:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2017 20:42:19 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 42
2017-09-15 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday, southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days, then is blended downward to the latest model consensus. Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2017-09-15 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 152035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 4(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 3(21) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 2(21) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 9(31) 1(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) X(17) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 1(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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