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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 19A
2017-09-10 07:53:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100553 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JOSE PASSING WELL NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 64.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower forward motion is expected on Monday as Jose makes a turn toward the north. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin to affect Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-10 05:05:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 03:05:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 03:32:12 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-10 04:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100258 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to have an impressive satellite signature, with a nearly clear 15 to 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just finished a mission through Jose, with maximum flight-level winds of 122 kt and maximum SFMR winds of 109 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 115 kt. The initial motion remains a steady 310/12 kt, with Jose's motion through the first 36 hours being driven by a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As the ridge shifts to the east of the system on day 2, a turn toward the north is expected, with a decrease in the forward motion. By day 3, the steering currents are expected to become quite weak, with Jose moving north of the mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer low passes well to the northeast. This will induce a short-lived motion to the east, but as the ridge rebuilds west and then north of Jose, a gradual westward turn of the cyclone is expected. The 5-day forecast depicts Jose completing a relatively small anticyclonic loop over the open Atlantic. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, and closely follows the consensus guidance and operational ECMWF/GFS/UKMET. The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, and thus little change in short-term intensity is expected. Although water temperatures will be sufficiently warm to support an intense cyclone, moderate shear - of varying directions - is expected to lead to gradual weakening over the next couple of days as Jose meanders over the open Atlantic. The updated intensity forecast is close to the previous prediction, but is stronger than the SHIPS model, due to the IVCN/ECMWF models maintaining a more intense system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 19.8N 63.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.1N 65.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 22.8N 67.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 26.3N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 25.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 24.5N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-10 04:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 19.8, -63.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-10 04:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100252 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE JOSE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 63.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.4 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower forward motion is expected on Monday as Jose makes a turn toward the north. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are expected within the tropical storm warning areas overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and will begin to affect the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake
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