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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-08-08 04:47:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080247 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Despite a marginal environment, Julio has become better organized over the past several hours with warming temperatures in the eye and strong convection in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from all agencies suggest that the intensity has increased to at least 100 kt, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. With few outer bands and a symmetric structure around the eye, Julio now appears to have become an annular hurricane, much like Iselle in the same general area a few days ago. While guidance is generally showing a steady or quick weakening, these hurricanes are known to be more resilent to marginal environments than most. Since little change is expected to the SSTs or shear for the next day or so, it makes sense to go above the model guidance at that time with the current annular structure, and the NHC prediction is raised from the previous one. An increase in westerly shear after that time could cause Julio to transition into a more conventional cyclone structure, so the intensity forecast is blended with the previous interpolated forecast and the model consensus. At long range, although the SSTs are forecast to rise, there could also be an increase in shear. With the large uncertainty, little change is made to the extended-range intensity prediction. Julio is moving at about 280/14. There has been no change to the forecast synoptic pattern with the hurricane expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, with a westward turn at long range due to the ridge strengthening. Track guidance is in better agreement than the last cycle, with even the GFDL model, formerly an outlier solution near Hawaii, shifting northward away from the islands. The new NHC prediction is adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, close to the model consensus, although most of the better performing individual models are still farther north. It should be noted that data from a NOAA G-IV jet synoptic surveillance mission for Julio should be included in the 0000 UTC model runs. Julio is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility by 0900 UTC and will issue the next advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.4N 139.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 19.4N 147.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.2N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 163.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-08-08 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080246 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 08 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 1 44(45) 27(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 145W 50 X 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) 1(27) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 1(24) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LIHUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-07 23:14:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 21:00:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 21:06:31 GMT
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-07 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072045 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The eye has become a little better defined in visible imagery. However, the temperature and symmetry of the eyewall cloud tops are about the same as they were 6 hours ago. Satellite intensity estimates remain 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB. In addition, UW-CIMSS ADT/SATCON estimates are near 100 kt, and there was a recent AMSU intensity estimate of 98 kt. The initial intensity remains at a possibly conservative 90 kt. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is now 280/15. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward path. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance remains tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the outlier GFDL model, which still forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should turn more westward. However, there is still some spread in the guidance, with the UKMET forecasting a continued west-northwestward motion and the ECMWF forecasting a turn toward the west-southwest. The multi-model consensus lies near the previous forecast track, so the new track is just an update of the previous advisory. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Julio. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. The intensity guidance is in excellent agreement in showing a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The agreement breaks down after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During that period, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Julio to be a moderate strength tropical storm, while the GFDL/HWRF models forecast it to be a hurricane. In addition, the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is still a compromise between the two model camps, and the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. It is possible that Julio could get a little stronger than forecast during the next 6-12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.1N 137.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.5N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.1N 143.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 18.8N 146.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 148.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-08-07 22:44:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072044 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X 6( 6) 47(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 145W 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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