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Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO CONTINUING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 7 the center of JULIO was located near 17.1, -137.7 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 16
2014-08-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072043 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 ...JULIO CONTINUING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 137.7W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-08-07 22:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072043 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 137.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.1N 143.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.8N 146.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.8N 148.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 154.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 159.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 163.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 137.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-07 17:14:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 14:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Aug 2014 15:06:29 GMT
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-07 16:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now 280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced, but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period, the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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