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Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)

2014-08-07 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 the center of JULIO was located near 16.9, -136.5 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 15

2014-08-07 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 136.5W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 15

2014-08-07 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071437 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 136.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 136.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2014-08-07 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 11(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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