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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-08-07 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070249 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0300 UTC THU AUG 07 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 133.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 133.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 133.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-06 23:20:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 20:50:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 21:08:19 GMT
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-06 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062048 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Satellite imagery shows that Julio has become a little better organized, with multiple convective bands near the center and an eye possibly trying to form. The latest SSM/IS overpass, though, suggests the eyewall is still open to the north. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt and 65 kt, so the initial intensity remains at a possibly-conservative 65 kt. The cirrus outflow remains good over the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is now 290/15, which is a little to the right of the previous advisory. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward. Based on current trends, Julio is likely to be a little north of the previous forecast during the first 48 hours or so. However, at the later times the dynamical models have shifted southward since their previous forecasts, with the most notable shift by the GFS. The consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope have also shifted southward at 96-120 hours. The new track forecast will also be adjusted southward at those times, but it lies a little to the north of the consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Hurricane Iselle, and this data is also expected to help subsequent forecasts of Julio. The dynamical models have come into reasonably good agreement that Julio will remain in a light vertical wind shear environment through the forecast period. Thus, the intensity is most likely going to be controlled by sea surface temperatures and nearby dry air. While Julio is moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is expected to traverse sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C and gradually move into a drier air mass. This should cause a gradual weakening for the rest of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly from the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. It should be noted that despite the marginal sea surface temperatures and moisture, none of the dynamical models forecast Julio to dissipate during the next 5 days. Indeed, the GFDL and HWRF are stronger than the current forecast at 96-120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.8N 131.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.3N 134.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.9N 137.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.4N 140.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.0N 143.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 154.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-08-06 22:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062047 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 29(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-06 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 the center of JULIO was located near 15.8, -131.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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