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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-09-25 16:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 The cloud pattern is similar to 24 hours ago, and still consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective band to the east of the center. The overall circulation, however, appears to be decaying. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the strong shear and dry air affecting the cyclone, weakening is forecast. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 36 hours or sooner. The swirl defining the center has been moving northward at about 4 kt. A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic, and this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to move toward the northwest during the next day or two. A sharp turn to the west or southwest is expected on Sunday, and by then the cyclone could have opened into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 22.1N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 22.9N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 24.0N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 24.0N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 23.0N 53.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2015-09-25 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 251431 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-25 16:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 25 the center of IDA was located near 22.1, -45.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 29
2015-09-25 16:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 45.0W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 45.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, and Ida is expected to become a remnant low over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 29
2015-09-25 16:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 45.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 45.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.9N 45.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 46.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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