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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-25 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 08:38:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 08:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-09-25 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 A few convective cells have been forming near Ida's center during the past several hours, but most of the thunderstorm activity remains displaced more than 150 n mi to the east-northeast due to 20 kt of shear. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB, but it's clear from satellite imagery that the shear and dry air has caused a steady degradation of the cyclone's structure during the past few days. With moderate vertical shear expected to continue and the mid-level relative humidity forecast to drop to between 30 and 40 percent, additional weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Ida could degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast shows the possibility of the maximum winds increasing again by days 3 and 4, but this is the result of a tight pressure gradient between the remnant low and strong high pressure over the north Atlantic--not a restrengthening of Ida's circulation. Based on global model guidance, the remnant low could open up into a trough by day 5, if not sooner. Ida is being steered generally north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt, by a low-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The depression should move northwestward through 48 hours and then abruptly turn westward or west-southwestward during its remnant low stage when strong low-level ridging develops over the north Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and shows a slightly faster motion of the remnant low after 72 hours compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 21.7N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.4N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.4N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 24.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 24.1N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 23.2N 52.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-25 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 25 the center of IDA was located near 21.7, -45.3 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 28
2015-09-25 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 45.3W ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 45.3 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ida is expected to become a remnant low over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2015-09-25 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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