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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 26
2015-09-24 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 45.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 45.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.9N 45.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-24 17:08:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 14:57:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Sep 2015 15:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-09-24 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241448 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 There has been no significant change in the satellite presentation of the cyclone. Ida is a sheared system and consists of a broad circulation with a cyclonically curved convective band around the eastern side. Based on a recent ASCAT pass the initial intenisty has been lowered to 30 kt. The hostile shear environment will likely continue today, but both the operational SHIPS and the experimental SHIPS based on ECMWF fields lower the shear allowing for some restrengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little change in intensity during the next day or two, and some minor increase of the winds after that time. Ida has begun to move toward the north-northeast at 4 kt. The cyclone will become completely detached from the mid-level trough in about 12 to 24 hours, and will be slowly steered toward the north and north-northwest by the flow surrounding a developing subtropical ridge. After that time, a stronger ridge will force Ida to turn westward with some increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very consistent with this westward turn, however, by then, the status of Ida is highly uncertain. Ida could still be a tropical cyclone as indicated in the NHC forecast or it will be degenerating into a trough as indicated by the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 24.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 24.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 20.2, -44.9 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 25
2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015 ...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 44.9W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a northwestward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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