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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2015-09-24 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 241447 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 25
2015-09-24 16:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 44.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 44.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 44.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.8N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-21 17:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 14:40:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:06:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-21 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 GOES-15 shortwave I/R and first visible images show that the depression made landfall just to the northwest of Bahia Kino in the Mexican state of Sonora. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the subjective intensity estimates and surface observations along the coast of the Gulf of California. Weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves further inland, and the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area, or possibly dissipate, later today. The depression is moving north-northeastward and a little faster now, about 16 kt, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged toward the multi-model consensus TVCX. The main hazard from the depression continues to be heavy rainfall produced by the deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the surface circulation. The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora, and Arizona and New Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 29.2N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-09-21 16:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 211436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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