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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 28
2015-09-25 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 45.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 45.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.4N 45.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 46.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.4N 47.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.1N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 23.2N 52.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 45.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-25 05:09:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 02:39:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 03:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-09-25 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250239 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015 The center of Ida, like most of the Atlantic tropical cyclones this year at some point, is exposed to southwest of a bursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in accordance with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. A combination of shear and dry air aloft is expected to persist near Ida for the next few days. These conditions are forecast to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the cyclone could move into a slightly more favorable environment at long range, there isn't likely to be much left of Ida to take advantage of the conditions. The latest NHC forecast is close to the model consensus for the first few days, then is below that aid at days 3 and 4, leaning more heavily on the weaker solutions of the HWRF, GFS and ECMWF models. Both the GFS and the ECMWF now show Ida opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official forecast follows that trend. Ida is moving erratically north-northwestward at about 4 knots. The depression should turn northwestward tomorrow and head in that general direction for a couple of days due to a weak subtropical ridge forming over the central Atlantic. After that time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will likely move to the west or west-southwest as it is steered by a strong low-level ridge. The guidance has shifted leftward, which makes sense for a weaker cyclone, and the official NHC prediction follows suit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.3N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.8N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 23.7N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 24.4N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z 24.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2015-09-25 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 250239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-25 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED IDA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 24 the center of IDA was located near 21.3, -45.3 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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