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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-09-21 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211436 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 112.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 112.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162015)
2015-09-21 16:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 29.2, -112.1 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-21 16:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 211436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 ...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 112.1W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM N OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 112.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move across extreme northwestern Mexico today, and move into southern Arizona tonight or early Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the depression will likely degenerate to a remnant low later today or tonight. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 41 MPH...66 KM/H, was reported at Guaymas, in the Mexican state of Sonora. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora, and Arizona and New Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico today, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-21 11:14:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 09:01:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 09:06:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-21 10:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little before 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja California peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow swath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California well to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were likely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be associated with the depression. The cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, but this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the system have separated, and since even stronger shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is forecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or dissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over the southwestern United States. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in the flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a cut off low well to the west of Baja California. This general motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico. Portions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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