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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 13
2015-09-19 16:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 191432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 49.8W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight and dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-09-19 16:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 191432 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-09-19 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT24 KNHC 191432 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 49.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 49.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 50.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-19 11:11:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 08:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 09:06:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-19 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190835 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Nine is becoming less organized due to the ongoing 30-35 kt southwesterly shear. The convection is weaker in both coverage and intensity than it was 24 hours ago, and the low-level circulation is losing definition. The shear is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours, and based on this the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less. The initial motion is 290/10. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward the west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in a couple of days. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.5N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.9N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.5N 52.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 20.1N 53.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 20.9N 55.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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