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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-02 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020833 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 10(11) 8(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-02 05:26:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 02:40:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 03:10:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-02 04:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020243 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The depression is no better organized than it was earlier today. Satellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely organized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of circulation. This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is indicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. A relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36 hours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All other factors being equal at that time, this should present the cyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48 hours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air and southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough digging along the U.S. west coast. The global models indicate that the shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level circulations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5. The intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new intensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak in 24 to 36 hours. This new forecast, however, is higher than the statistical-dynamical guidance. The depression's center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the latest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of 325/08. A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a subtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should cause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours. Once the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of the amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature. However, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level center behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant low should drift erratically and then turn southward in the low-level flow until dissipation. The new track forecast is a little slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-02 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL DISORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY THURSDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 14.3, -114.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-02 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020240 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 16(16) 19(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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