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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-02 10:53:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 08:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 08:52:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-02 10:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours, but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east of the low-level center. Unfortunately ASCAT missed the circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB were steady or decreased from six hours ago. Therefore, the cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression. The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours. However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent an asymmetric convective pattern. The new NHC intensity forecast continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory. An increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3. Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 335/9 kt. A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should steer the depression generally northward through day 3. Once it becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift westward in the low-level flow. There are considerable speed differences between the track models, presumably a result of how soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared. The updated NHC track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-02 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 2 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 15.2, -115.1 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 7
2015-09-02 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 115.1W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 115.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a slower forward speed is expected Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-02 10:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020833 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 115.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 115.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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