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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-09-02 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020240 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.6W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.6W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-01 23:26:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 20:42:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 21:10:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-01 22:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 9( 9) 32(41) 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-01 22:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 13.7, -114.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2015-09-01 22:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 114.2W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 114.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the north-northwest is anticipated Wednesday morning followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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