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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-09-04 16:46:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041446 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over the cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation is not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are gradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. The shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so, resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3 days. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt, steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to recurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 22.3N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96H 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-09-04 16:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 041446 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-04 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.3, -38.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 23
2015-09-04 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041445 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 38.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 38.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-03 04:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:52:13 GMT
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