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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-02 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 16.8, -114.9 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-02 16:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 14:36:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 14:52:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-02 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of the surface circulation. Although deep convection has increased somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours for some strengthening. Through the remaining portion of the period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to traverse cooler sea surface temperatures. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory. A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt. The cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the next 36 hours or so. After that time, a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast through day 3. By that point in time, the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-02 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 2 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 16.2, -115.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 8
2015-09-02 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 115.0W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 115.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the next couple of days. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduced forward speed is forecast Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but the depression still could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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