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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-03 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center of the depression. Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour. The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. I suspect this is on the conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is more concrete data to support an upgrade. The cyclone has about a day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air infiltrates the circulation. Remnant low status is anticipated by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit higher than the intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt. The global models are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. The biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response to the low-level flow. In general, the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-03 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 17.0, -115.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-09-03 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-02 23:26:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 20:32:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 21:10:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-02 22:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022031 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015 Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops. Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a generally north-northwestward direction or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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