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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-01 17:26:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 14:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 15:10:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-01 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011436 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the consensus and similar to the previous one. The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered toward the north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow. Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-09-01 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 13(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-01 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 13.0, -113.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-01 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 113.6W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 113.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn to the north is anticipated during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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