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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-01 10:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010849 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) 3(33) X(33) 1(34) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-01 10:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 010846 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 113.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 113.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-01 05:26:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 02:39:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 03:10:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-01 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 12.4, -112.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-01 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 ...DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 112.8W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and north is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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