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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-01 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-08-31 22:54:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 20:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 20:53:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-31 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312039 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015 Animation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a well-defined circulation. Recently, deep convection has formed near and partially over the center. On this basis, the system is being designated as a tropical depression. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800 UTC. The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal environment for strengthening. A broad upper-level cyclone to the northwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the depression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly relax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter. Although the official intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance, it nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge currently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift eastward over the next few days. As a result, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours. There is some spread in the model guidance, including significant differences in predicted forward speed. As a compromise, the official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance, and close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-08-31 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 23(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-08-31 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 12.4, -111.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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