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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-09-01 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 011435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 113.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-01 11:25:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 08:55:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 09:10:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-01 10:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010851 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 A couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the cyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but it was close. A burst of convection has recently developed near the low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is somewhat elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data. The depression still appears to be experiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below 15 kt for the next 36 hours or so. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Vertical shear increases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a large upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the cyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged from the previous advisory. The ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate, and the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next couple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula. However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is likely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or becoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California peninsula by day 5. The NHC track forecast is closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-01 10:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 12.6, -113.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-01 10:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010849 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 113.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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