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Tropical Depression IVO Public Advisory Number 11
2013-08-25 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 250231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 ...IVO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 114.4W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO STILL ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-08-25 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 250230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 114.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 114.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-23 10:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE STEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-23 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 the center of NINE-E was located near 18.7, -112.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2013-08-23 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2013 08:33:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2013 08:31:47 GMT
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