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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
2019-07-13 04:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 108.5W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the west is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-07-13 04:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 130233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-07-13 04:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0300 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.7N 110.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-12 22:31:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 20:31:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 21:31:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-12 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122030 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Convection associated with an area of low pressure located south of the southwestern coast of Mexico has increased substantially since last night. Furthermore, ASCAT data from 1630 UTC show that the low has developed a small but well-defined center with maximum winds of 25-30 kt. The system now meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data. The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level easterly winds and is not expected to last long. In fact all of the dynamical models suggest that the depression will weaken and become a post-tropical low in about 36 h, if not sooner. The statistical guidance is a little higher, but still generally agrees that the depression will not strengthen much. The official forecast shows the cyclone becoming a short-lived tropical storm and then slowly weakening through 48 h, and is generally close to IVCN. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt along the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. There is surprisingly little agreement in the track guidance on the track of the depression for the brief period it survives, but they all generally show it moving near its current heading for a day or so. A turn toward the west is expected by Sunday as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallow. I have no reason to favor any one solution over another at this point, so the NHC forecast closely follows the consensus at all forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 18.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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