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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-13 16:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 14:36:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 14:36:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 There are no changes of significance to report on the depression or its official forecast. The system is still strongly sheared from the east, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the cyclone's intensity at 30 kt. First-light visible imagery revealed that the depression's center is still exposed to the northeast of a small area of deep convection. All of the global and hurricane dynamical models indicate that the system will begin to weaken later today and could dissipate as early as late Sunday or early Monday due to the combination of a dry near-storm environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. There is no change to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. The cyclone will likely turn westward as it weakens and loses its deep convection later today or tonight, and then continue on a westward heading until it dissipates in a couple of days. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the track model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS model which has performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042019)
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Four-E was located near 17.3, -111.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 111.0W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). The system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest or west for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. It will likely dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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