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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019 The depression has been devoid of significant convection since early Saturday evening. Even in the convective maximum period, the system has only been able to muster intermittent individual cells producing anvils that are being subsequently blown west of the circulation by about 20 kt of easterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds of around 25 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and this is the initial advisory intensity. The stable environment ahead of the cyclone is not conducive for its longevity and it will likely become a remnant low later today. The remnant low should dissipate within a couple of days. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west later today or tonight. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 18.2N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-07-14 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140832 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-14 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 02:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 03:30:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-14 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression lost essentially all of its deep convection a few hours ago, as strong easterly shear has continued to disrupt the system. Recently, a few cells have formed near the center. Since the cyclone is over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, additional new convection could still re-develop in the circulation overnight. However, it seems likely that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the west tomorrow, and eventually a west-southwestward motion is likely as the shallow circulation follows the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is somewhat south of the dynamical model consensus, and close to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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