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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-13 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 08:33:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 09:30:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-13 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression has a ragged and sheared appearance. The low-level center briefly became exposed several hours ago before a burst of deep convection developed over the southwestern semicircle. The subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to support a 30-kt system, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. The convective maximum over warm SSTs will likely maintain this current increase in the convection through mid morning. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to entrain stable air to its west while continuing to be impacted by 20 kt of northeasterly shear. This should cause a weakening trend to begin later on today or tonight. By Sunday, the system is expected to become a remnant low devoid of deep convection. Shortly thereafter, the low will degenerate into a trough. The official intensity forecast is in agreement with all available intensity guidance, with just some minor variations in timing noted between the model solutions. The current motion is 305/13 kt. The aforementioned exposed center allowed for a northeastward adjustment of the cyclone's position over the past 12 hours or so. This northwestward motion is expected to continue while the system maintains its convection. Once the convection dissipates, the system will become steered more toward the west-northwest to west in the lower-level steering flow. The latest forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042019)
2019-07-13 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HANGING ON BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Four-E was located near 16.8, -109.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 3
2019-07-13 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 130831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION HANGING ON BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.7W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a turn to the west-northwest is expected by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to begin weakening later today and should become a remnant low on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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