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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-07-14 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042019)
2019-07-14 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Four-E was located near 17.7, -113.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 6
2019-07-14 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 140236 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.. SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 113.7W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 113.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. It will likely dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-07-14 04:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 140236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 113.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 113.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-13 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 20:33:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 21:31:00 GMT
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