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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-13 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132031 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression consists of a small low-level swirl, exposed to the east of a shrinking area of convection. The initial winds have been maintained at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. For the moment, the system appears to be on its way to becoming a remnant low with convection gradually decreasing, just as most of the dynamical models predicted during the last day or so. There has been no important change in the guidance, and the cyclone is still forecast to gradually weaken during the next couple of days and could become a remnant low as early as tomorrow afternoon. The remnant low could then last for another day or so after that, but should open into a trough and dissipate early next week. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, but is forecast to turn toward the west tonight as it weakens and loses its convection. While there is still some spread in the models, especially regarding how far westward the remnant low will make it before it dissipates, they all generally agree on this forecast. The NHC forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is largely unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-07-13 22:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 132031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 10 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042019)
2019-07-13 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Four-E was located near 17.5, -112.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 5
2019-07-13 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 112.4W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 112.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight with a slight decrease in forward speed through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. It will likely dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-07-13 22:31:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132030 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.1N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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